Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2026
468 games, moneylines, after exchange fees. This week is still being played: the numbers grow each day until Monday’s games. Last game added Nov 15, 3:22 AM ET.
Kalshi paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 151 of 699 moneyline bets (22%) after its trading fee so far.
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 147 of 694 moneyline bets (21%) after its trading fee so far.
The vig so far: Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 4.4% after fees; sportsbooks from 4.6% (Fanatics) to 5.5% (BetRivers); the best sportsbook price on each side, 2.9%.
The vig, by venue
What each venue keeps on a moneyline: the implied chances of every side added up, minus 100%. Lower is cheaper for the bettor. A standard −110 / −110 line is 4.8%.
| Venue | Average vig | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket, after fees | 4.4% | 319 |
| Kalshi, after fees | 4.5% | 321 |
| Fanatics | 4.6% | 49 |
| theScore Bet | 4.6% | 41 |
| FanDuel | 4.7% | 43 |
| DraftKings | 4.7% | 43 |
| Hard Rock | 4.7% | 34 |
| Caesars | 4.8% | 37 |
| BetMGM | 4.9% | 40 |
| betPARX | 5.2% | 39 |
| Bally Bet | 5.4% | 45 |
| BetRivers | 5.5% | 44 |
| Best sportsbook price on each side (line shopping) | 2.9% | 326 |
By sport
| Sport | Kalshi best / bets | Polymarket best / bets |
|---|---|---|
| NCAAB odds | 73 of 287 (25%) | 62 of 284 (22%) |
| NBA odds | 9 of 69 (13%) | 9 of 69 (13%) |
| NCAAF odds | 18 of 105 (17%) | 28 of 105 (27%) |
| NHL odds | 16 of 90 (18%) | 15 of 90 (17%) |
| WTA Finals odds | 4 of 20 (20%) | 5 of 20 (25%) |
| NFL odds | 3 of 25 (12%) | 6 of 25 (24%) |
| Nations League odds | 24 of 79 (30%) | 19 of 79 (24%) |
| UFC odds | 3 of 20 (15%) | 3 of 18 (17%) |
| ATP Finals odds | 1 of 4 (25%) | 0 of 4 (0%) |
Where the exchanges paid most
The bets where Kalshi or Polymarket beat the best sportsbook by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Retrievers ML | UMBC Retrievers @ Towson Tigers · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +456 Polymarket | +360 Fanatics | +$96 |
| UMBC Retrievers ML | UMBC Retrievers @ Towson Tigers · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +456 Kalshi | +360 Fanatics | +$96 |
| Loyola (Chi) Ramblers ML | Loyola (Chi) Ramblers @ Colorado St Rams · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +398 Kalshi | +310 Fanatics | +$88 |
| Howard Bison ML | Howard Bison @ Davidson Wildcats · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +332 Polymarket | +290 Fanatics | +$42 |
| Howard Bison ML | Howard Bison @ Davidson Wildcats · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +331 Kalshi | +290 Fanatics | +$41 |
| Belarus ML | Belarus vs Albania · Nations League · Nov 15 | +351 Polymarket | +310 BetMGM | +$41 |
| Belarus ML | Belarus vs Albania · Nations League · Nov 15 | +351 Kalshi | +310 BetMGM | +$41 |
| Brown Bears ML | Brown Bears @ Siena Saints · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +491 Polymarket | +460 FanDuel | +$31 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson Knights ML | Fairleigh Dickinson Knights @ East Texas A&M Lions · NCAAB · Nov 11 | +490 Kalshi | +460 Fanatics | +$30 |
| Slovenia ML | Slovenia vs Switzerland · Nations League · Nov 13 | +490 Kalshi | +460 Bally Bet | +$30 |
Where the sportsbooks paid most
The bets where the best sportsbook beat the exchange by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy Titans ML | Toledo Rockets @ Detroit Mercy Titans · NCAAB · Nov 14 | +426 Kalshi | +490 FanDuel | −$64 |
| Stetson Hatters ML | Stetson Hatters @ Howard Bison · NCAAB · Nov 12 | +398 Polymarket | +460 Fanatics | −$62 |
| Charlotte 49ers ML | East Carolina Pirates @ Charlotte 49ers · NCAAF · Nov 14 | +331 Kalshi | +380 Bally Bet | −$49 |
| Titans ML | Jaguars @ Titans · NFL · Nov 15 | +456 Kalshi | +500 DraftKings | −$44 |
| West Florida Argonauts ML | West Florida Argonauts @ Alabama A&M Bulldogs · NCAAB · Nov 12 | +240 Polymarket | +280 DraftKings | −$40 |
How this report is built
Each game is priced once, within a day of its start, from the same feed the live Oddy board uses: every regulated US sportsbook we carry, plus Kalshi and Polymarket. For each moneyline side we take the best sportsbook price and compare it with each exchange’s price after its trading fee, because the fee is part of what you pay. A “win” means the exchange paid more than the best sportsbook on that side; ties count as no win. Only sides priced from −500 to +500 at the best sportsbook count: longer shots trade at a few cents on the exchanges, where a one-cent tick swings the comparison more than the markets do. Prices move, so this measures how the markets stood before each game, not a guarantee for the next one.
The vig is measured on the same prices. For each game a venue priced on every side, add up the chance each price implies (1 ÷ decimal odds) and subtract 100%; what is left is the venue’s cut. Kalshi and Polymarket are measured after their trading fees. Each sportsbook’s own vig is listed from the week of November 10, 2026, once it has at least 10 games in the week; “best sportsbook price” takes the best book on each side, which is what a bettor who shops every book pays.
This week’s questions
Was Kalshi cheaper than sportsbooks this week, Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2026?
Kalshi paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 151 of 699 moneyline bets (22%) after its trading fee so far. On the other 548 at least one sportsbook paid as much or more. Before the fee Kalshi would have won 513.
Was Kalshi better on favorites or underdogs?
Kalshi beat the best sportsbook on 98 of 367 underdog sides (27%) and 53 of 332 favorites (16%).
Was Polymarket cheaper than sportsbooks this week, Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2026?
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 147 of 694 moneyline bets (21%) after its trading fee so far. On the other 547 at least one sportsbook paid as much or more. Before the fee Polymarket would have won 544.
Was Polymarket better on favorites or underdogs?
Polymarket beat the best sportsbook on 94 of 364 underdog sides (26%) and 53 of 330 favorites (16%).
What is the vig on Kalshi and Polymarket compared with sportsbooks?
The week of Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2026, so far: Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 4.4% after fees; sportsbooks from 4.6% (Fanatics) to 5.5% (BetRivers); the best sportsbook price on each side, 2.9%. Vig is the implied chance of every side of a game added up, minus 100%; exchange prices are after fees.
Cite this report: Oddy, “Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2026”, https://getoddy.com/reports/kalshi-polymarket-vs-sportsbooks-week-of-2026-11-10. Free to quote with a link.
Related: All weekly reports · Kalshi vs sportsbooks, live · Polymarket vs sportsbooks, live · Kalshi fee calculator
Other weeks: Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2026 · Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026
What is Oddy?
Oddy shows what every regulated sportsbook and prediction market pays for the same bet, ranked, with a link to the best price. Prices refresh every 5 minutes before a game; once it starts, Kalshi and Polymarket are re-read every 5 seconds from their own APIs (how Oddy works). Free, no account, and we never sell picks.