Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2026
9 games, moneylines, after exchange fees. This week is still being played: the numbers grow each day until Monday’s games. Last game added Nov 2, 3:22 AM ET.
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 2 of 18 moneyline bets (11%) after its trading fee so far.
By sport
| Sport | Kalshi best / bets | Polymarket best / bets |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Paris Masters odds | — | 2 of 18 (11%) |
Where the exchanges paid most
The bets where Kalshi or Polymarket beat the best sportsbook by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul ML | Holger Rune vs Tommy Paul · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | -208 Polymarket | -210 BetMGM | even |
| Brandon Nakashima ML | Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | -154 Polymarket | -155 Bally Bet | even |
Where the sportsbooks paid most
The bets where the best sportsbook beat the exchange by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Rinderknech ML | Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur Rinderknech · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | +174 Polymarket | +190 Hard Rock | −$16 |
| Holger Rune ML | Holger Rune vs Tommy Paul · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | +174 Polymarket | +185 Bally Bet | −$11 |
| Matteo Berrettini ML | Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | +129 Polymarket | +140 FanDuel | −$11 |
| Arthur Gea ML | Arthur Gea vs Jan-Lennard Struff · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | -143 Polymarket | -126 DraftKings | −$9 |
| Jiri Lehecka ML | Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Michelsen · ATP Paris Masters · Nov 3 | -148 Polymarket | -134 FanDuel | −$7 |
How this report is built
Each game is priced once, within a day of its start, from the same feed the live Oddy board uses: every regulated US sportsbook we carry, plus Kalshi and Polymarket. For each moneyline side we take the best sportsbook price and compare it with each exchange’s price after its trading fee, because the fee is part of what you pay. A “win” means the exchange paid more than the best sportsbook on that side; ties count as no win. Only sides priced from −500 to +500 at the best sportsbook count: longer shots trade at a few cents on the exchanges, where a one-cent tick swings the comparison more than the markets do. Prices move, so this measures how the markets stood before each game, not a guarantee for the next one.
This week’s questions
Was Polymarket cheaper than sportsbooks this week, Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2026?
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 2 of 18 moneyline bets (11%) after its trading fee so far. On the other 16 at least one sportsbook paid as much or more. Before the fee Polymarket would have won 14.
Was Polymarket better on favorites or underdogs?
Polymarket beat the best sportsbook on 0 of 9 underdog sides (0%) and 2 of 9 favorites (22%).
Cite this report: Oddy, “Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Nov 3 – Nov 9, 2026”, https://getoddy.com/reports/kalshi-polymarket-vs-sportsbooks-week-of-2026-11-03. Free to quote with a link.
Related: All weekly reports · Kalshi vs sportsbooks, live · Polymarket vs sportsbooks, live · Kalshi fee calculator
Other weeks: Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026
What is Oddy?
Oddy shows what every regulated sportsbook and prediction market pays for the same bet, ranked, with a link to the best price. Prices refresh about every minute. Free, no account, and we never sell picks.