Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026
131 games, moneylines, after exchange fees. This week is still being played: the numbers grow each day until Monday’s games. Last game added Nov 1, 10:44 PM ET.
Kalshi paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 39 of 164 moneyline bets (24%) after its trading fee so far.
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 31 of 158 moneyline bets (20%) after its trading fee so far.
By sport
| Sport | Kalshi best / bets | Polymarket best / bets |
|---|---|---|
| NFL odds | 0 of 2 (0%) | 1 of 2 (50%) |
| NBA odds | 5 of 21 (24%) | 5 of 21 (24%) |
| Premier League odds | 0 of 3 (0%) | 0 of 3 (0%) |
| La Liga odds | 1 of 3 (33%) | 0 of 3 (0%) |
| Serie A odds | 2 of 6 (33%) | 1 of 6 (17%) |
| Ligue 1 odds | 1 of 3 (33%) | 1 of 3 (33%) |
| NHL odds | 1 of 8 (13%) | 0 of 8 (0%) |
| NCAAB odds | 23 of 92 (25%) | 17 of 86 (20%) |
| ATP Paris Masters odds | 6 of 26 (23%) | 6 of 26 (23%) |
Where the exchanges paid most
The bets where Kalshi or Polymarket beat the best sportsbook by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highlanders ML | Highlanders @ Dons · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +456 Kalshi | +320 theScore Bet | +$136 |
| Highlanders ML | Highlanders @ Dons · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +426 Polymarket | +320 theScore Bet | +$106 |
| Wildcats ML | Wildcats @ Bears · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +426 Kalshi | +360 DraftKings | +$66 |
| Penguins ML | Penguins @ Bonnies · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +490 Kalshi | +440 FanDuel | +$50 |
| Falcons ML | Falcons @ Raiders · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +490 Kalshi | +450 FanDuel | +$40 |
| Wildcats ML | Wildcats @ Bears · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +398 Polymarket | +360 DraftKings | +$38 |
| Lions ML | Lions @ Aggies · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +373 Kalshi | +340 BetMGM | +$33 |
| Golden Eagles ML | Golden Eagles @ Bears · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +351 Kalshi | +320 DraftKings | +$31 |
| Bobcats ML | Bobcats @ Rams · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +530 Polymarket | +500 betPARX | +$30 |
| Parma ML | Atalanta BC vs Parma · Serie A · Nov 2 | +530 Kalshi | +500 betPARX | +$30 |
Where the sportsbooks paid most
The bets where the best sportsbook beat the exchange by the most.
| Bet | Game | Exchange, after fee | Best sportsbook | Exchange vs best, $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers ML | Tigers @ Racers · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +426 Polymarket | +500 theScore Bet | −$74 |
| Tigers ML | Tigers @ Racers · NCAAB · Nov 2 | +456 Kalshi | +500 theScore Bet | −$44 |
| Draw ML | Newcastle United vs Everton · Premier League · Nov 2 | +240 Kalshi | +270 theScore Bet | −$30 |
| Draw ML | Newcastle United vs Everton · Premier League · Nov 2 | +240 Polymarket | +270 theScore Bet | −$30 |
| Bucks ML | Bucks @ Timberwolves · NBA · Nov 2 | +331 Kalshi | +360 FanDuel | −$29 |
How this report is built
Each game is priced once, within a day of its start, from the same feed the live Oddy board uses: every regulated US sportsbook we carry, plus Kalshi and Polymarket. For each moneyline side we take the best sportsbook price and compare it with each exchange’s price after its trading fee, because the fee is part of what you pay. A “win” means the exchange paid more than the best sportsbook on that side; ties count as no win. Only sides priced from −500 to +500 at the best sportsbook count: longer shots trade at a few cents on the exchanges, where a one-cent tick swings the comparison more than the markets do. Prices move, so this measures how the markets stood before each game, not a guarantee for the next one.
This week’s questions
Was Kalshi cheaper than sportsbooks this week, Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026?
Kalshi paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 39 of 164 moneyline bets (24%) after its trading fee so far. On the other 125 at least one sportsbook paid as much or more. Before the fee Kalshi would have won 121.
Was Kalshi better on favorites or underdogs?
Kalshi beat the best sportsbook on 27 of 85 underdog sides (32%) and 12 of 79 favorites (15%).
Was Polymarket cheaper than sportsbooks this week, Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026?
Polymarket paid more than every regulated sportsbook on 31 of 158 moneyline bets (20%) after its trading fee so far. On the other 127 at least one sportsbook paid as much or more. Before the fee Polymarket would have won 111.
Was Polymarket better on favorites or underdogs?
Polymarket beat the best sportsbook on 20 of 82 underdog sides (24%) and 11 of 76 favorites (14%).
Cite this report: Oddy, “Kalshi and Polymarket vs sportsbooks, week of Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2026”, https://getoddy.com/reports/kalshi-polymarket-vs-sportsbooks-week-of-2026-10-27. Free to quote with a link.
Related: All weekly reports · Kalshi vs sportsbooks, live · Polymarket vs sportsbooks, live · Kalshi fee calculator
What is Oddy?
Oddy shows what every regulated sportsbook and prediction market pays for the same bet, ranked, with a link to the best price. Prices refresh about every minute. Free, no account, and we never sell picks.